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HIV: Where have all the voters gone? Idasa, 25 November 2004
Impact of HIV and AIDS on elections and democracy

Press release
Impact of HIV and AIDS on elections and democracy

Where have all the voters gone?

HIV and AIDS are eroding the South African electoral base. Increasing death rates in the voting age group could explain the downward trend in voter turnout over the last three elections and also contribute to political power shifts. These were some of the findings in a report presented by the Governance and AIDS Programme of the Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa) in Pretoria yesterday (subs: correct, 25 November)

The report, HIV/AIDS and Democratic Governance in South Africa, illustrates the impact of the epidemic on electoral processes and shows evidence of a sharp increase in mortality – in some cases up to 200 percent – among registered voters between the ages of 20-49. Although these figures cannot be attributed exclusively to HIV and AIDS, they correspond with the demographic picture described by AIDS experts for the population as a whole.

“This report is an attempt to understand how HIV and AIDS can impact on electoral democracy using South Africa as a case,” says Paul Graham, Idasa’s executive director. “There is a more general message in that the information in this report confronts us with what the threat really is in the area of elections and thus the foundation of democratic governance.”

The data in the Idasa report details mortality among the electorate as reflected on the voters’ roll via the population register. It shows that between 1999 and 2003 almost 1.5 million of South Africa’s registered voters were removed from the voters’ roll because they died. This is out of a total of 20,674,926 registered voters. In the same time the number of deaths among registered voters increased by 66 percent. In some municipalities there was an increase of more than 300 percent in mortality over the four years for women between 30 and 39 years of age. In Limpopo Province there was a mortality increase of 160 percent. The mortality in the age group 30 to 49 increased at a higher rate than the other age groups. The figures used for analysis in the report represent absolute figures meaning every number represents an actual deceased person.

“The analysis and the information we present here does not only speak to the more specific purpose of this report – the impact HIV and AIDS on electoral processes – but addresses the more general question of whether mortality from AIDS is as problematic as is argued by some analysts and AIDS activists,” says Kondwani Chirambo, manager of Idasa’s Governance and AIDS Programme. “This could provide useful evidence in the debate between those who argue for the current estimates of HIV prevalence and AIDS mortality and those who argue that these figures are overstated or exaggerated.”

Chirambo says the information in the report is relevant for a number of analytical purposes. “Demographers can use it to check the validity of assumptions about mortality and political scientists can investigate more fully the varying levels of voter registration in different age groups, among men and women and across municipalities.”

One of the related issues explored in the report is the impact of HIV and AIDS on the ability of independent electoral bodies like the IEC to ensure free and fair elections. If the epidemic erodes the skills base and experience of these institutions it would also impact on its ability to ensure the integrity of the voters’ roll. “The ability of the IEC to conduct free and fair elections and the efficiency with which they currently manage the voters’ roll is above suspicion but in other Southern African countries problems with voter roll management provide opportunity for fraud and ‘ghost voting’ placing the integrity of the election process as a whole, on the line.

“The evidence in this report should alert planners and policy makers in South Africa to prevent similar scenarios timeously,” Chirambo added.

Other issues that are investigated in the Idasa report include the impact of HIV and AIDS on democratic governance, the cost of electoral systems and the political and social ramifications of public opinion on the government's management of HIV and AIDS.

The report will be published early in 2005. Copies of the current final draft are available from Idasa. Contact Marietjie Myburg or Shaila Gupta at shaila@idasa.org.za / marietjie@idasa.org.za If you want to share pictures, use the calendar, or start a questionnaire visit http://www.smartgroups.com/groups/rapeactionsa To leave the group, email: rapeactionsa-unsubscribe@smartgroups.com Report abuse