SPEAK OUT

Politics
HIV and elections, Idasa, 25 November, 2004
Impact of HIV and AIDS on elections and democracy

Press release
Impact of HIV and AIDS on elections and democracy

The cost of HIV and AIDS on electoral models

HIV and AIDS have serious cost implications for electoral models and the debate on the reform of the South African system should take this into account. This is according to a report presented by the Governance and AIDS Programme of the Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa) in Pretoria yesterday (subs: correct, 25 November)

The report, HIV/AIDS and Democratic Governance in South Africa, confirms that, in terms of HIV and AIDS, it will be less costly for South Africa to maintain the Proportional Representation (PR) System.

The report also looks at the cost implications of other electoral models in the region and finds that the First Past the Post (FPTP) model which is in use in most of the countries in Southern Africa may face serious budgetary challenges if the current trend in by-elections continues. Examples in the report show that Zambia and Lesotho have faced added costs to their election budgets due to an unprecedented increase in the number of by-elections due to members of parliament dying. It is not possible to relate all deaths to AIDS but there are factors that indicate that the epidemic must at least be one of the contributing factors or causes of death.

In Zambia, 46 by-elections were held in the 20-year period between independence and the first reported AIDS cases (1964 and 1984). Of these, 14 were as a result of death and 32 as a result of resignations and expulsion. In the period between 1985 and 2003, 102 by-elections took place, 39 as a result of death – almost three times as many as in the previous and longer period. The cause of death is not recorded but 27 of the 39 people were in the vulnerable age range for AIDS related deaths.

Information from the Zambian Electoral Commission quoted in the Idasa report, indicates that one by-election costs the country just more than U$200 000.00. Because by-elections are not budgeted for resources have to be re-allocated from other services in the national budget. This can have devastating effects on countries that are already relying heavily on donor and other aid.

In Lesotho, where the electoral model has been reformed from a FPTP to a mixed member proportional system, eight MPs have died since 2002 and seven of them have had to be replaced through by-elections. Of the eight MPs, three died due to road accidents and five died of illness. One by-election costs the country R1 million.

According to the Kondwani Chirambo of Idasa’s Governance and AIDS Programme the replacement of MPs on a national level under the Proportional Representation Model, is relatively straightforward and has less financial implications. But he cautions: “The cost of losing MPs may be less in financial terms but it could be high in terms of losing experience and institutional memory.”

He also warns that South Africa will not escape the cost of by-elections since it still runs the FPTP system on local government level. “The report shows that the number of by-elections have increased since 2001 and at R30 000.00 per ward by-election these will put more pressure on an already limited financial resource base.”

In 2001 79 by-elections were held in South Africa. In 2003 this number increased to 83. The largest number, 21, were held in Kwazulu Natal followed by the Northern Cape (9), Western Cape (9), Gauteng (8) and Free State (8). Until May this year a total of 60 by-elections have already been held. Chirambo says the report does not conclude that every by-election is a result of AIDS but looking at the trends it is fair to infer that the epidemic does play a role. “The more important point is that by-elections that happen for whatever reason – including illness and death – will translate into political and financial cost to South Africa’s young democracy.”

Other issues that are investigated in the Idasa report include the impact of HIV and AIDS on democratic governance and the political and social ramifications of public opinion on the government's management of HIV and AIDS.
Released by the Governance and AIDS Programme of Idasa
The report will be published early in 2005. Copies of the current final draft are available from Idasa. Contact Marietjie Myburg or Shaila Gupta at 012 392 0500 or shaila@idasa.org.za / marietjie@idasa.org.za If you want to share pictures, use the calendar, or start a questionnaire visit http://www.smartgroups.com/groups/sexualviolencej To leave the group, email: sexualviolencej-unsubscribe@smartgroups.com Report abuse